Retrieved 2026-08-31 from public Binance and Bybit APIs. This is research, not trading advice.
A symmetric funding fade with the proposed trend filter lost 15.60 bps/trade after 8 bps costs on 200 Binance observations since 2024 (approx. Sharpe −3.84). It should be rejected, not marketed.
Rule: when funding is below the trailing 540-observation 2.5th percentile and prior-24h return is negative, long until the next 8h funding timestamp.
Selection warning: chosen after inspecting eight Binance cells. Bybit is cross-venue replication but shares the same calendar regime. A multiple-testing correction and untouched future sample are still required.
Binance script · Bybit script · original result JSON · replication JSON
Scripts use expanding, one-observation-shifted thresholds to prevent lookahead and include funding cashflow plus 8 bps round-trip cost.